 global warming
could cause new rainfall terrors; the Zeyzoun Dam
burst in Syria which resulted, for example, in
the extraordinary picture above,an entire
village, except for the roof of the mosque,
disappeared. The residue of earth,sand and stone
that is always eroding desert areas in rainstorms
(now occurring with unexpected violence
world-wide) built up behind the Zeyzoun Dam and
burst through on June 5th last.
Follows
notes of interest from World Bank and other
reviews of Middle East areas, which would also
apply in Southern Spain, Italy and in Greece.
I am cautioned by
my son that the following is unreadable...My
reason for retaining this format is that hours of
search sometimes bring only salient factors into
the notebook. To write up my argument or opinion
would be useless. The patient reader will, I
hope, confirm that one can realise a satisfactory
input of the factors, and have a good sketch in
mind of the problem, after a careful scan.Editor.
IPCC
Special Reports:De-forrestation, Climate Change.
Concepts for consideration:

Political parties: opting for
National or multi-National approaches ?

What
sustainable development to be achieved ?
Conservation
of Biological and Plant diversity
Maintenance of agricultural productive capacity.
Conservation
and maintenance of soil and water resources
Social
needs
Legal
and Institutional procedures
Land
use subsequent to change of climate re. forestry
etc.
LULUCF FilesSect 4.4 Agricultural systems
Sustainable agriculture.
Indigenous knowledge and Technology.
Maintaining
continuous ground-cover in the event of
de-forestation
.
Nutrient restoration re. de-forestation.
Integrated management of soil and water systems
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESMENTS (EIA) Sect
5.5 100+ Countries that have National EIA studies
Reports on these can be found in World Bank
Environmental Assess,ment Sourcebooks in 3
volumes. Watershed development section also The
Asian Bank has similar papers:

Resource Development Projects.1990
The general rule is that such
studies ahould be carried out by Independent
Experts

Cont.Section
5.5 EIA Protection of land re. conversion,
degradation of key watersheds, slow soil erosion,
effects on rural communities and on urban
municipalities.
WATER RESOURCES section 2.51 Conservation:
Maintenance, need of under-story vegetation,
non-clearance of leaf litter.
QUERIES: Nitrogen fixation in Middle East
agricultural groves?
Soil nutrients?
Deep soil condition - roots (spread/descent)?
Excessive or any light and water competition
between crops / trees ?
Social use of water? municipal use? "Vast
areas of degraded and desertified land in
developed and developing countries."

Only very limited Land Use Studies. (Somewhere
in Israel Archives there must be plans for
fertilization of Galilee and Negev deserts
planned 1935,Ben Gurion,Ed. note joc.braddell)

DE-FORESTATION
Result in:.....
Decreased infiltration of water .
Higher run-off of storm rain water, seasonal
Increased peak water discharges
Reduced run-off in dry season
Soil erosion
Gully and Ravine formation
Siltation of reservoirs and irrigation schemes
TREES have water regulation function ;
root systems are relative to ground water
extraction ;
use more water than crops or short vegetation;
create evaporation of water from tree-canopies;
De-forestation can bring about rise
of ground water toward surface and thus salt
deposits in areas of shallow salination. ( deforestation
of olive trees in Palestine has and is scheduled
to continue apace,Ed. note,joc braddell)

Studies by HARDING 1992, BLYTHE 1994
Water cycling could become major environmental
service, lead to increase of water transfer to
atmosphere, increase of humidity, lower
temperatures, increase of rainfall in temperate
and tropic regions. Ill conceived de-forestation
could make conditions unsuitable for subsequent
re-generation.
FINANCE;
Private Sector Investment in Technology in Middle
East: :Always has been very selective, volatile
and easily attracted elsewhere. Comparisons: 1990
O.6%; 1993 3.9%; l996 76.9% *address: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/tectran/510.htm Valuable list pg.2,
parameters for and against investment, facilities
and potential. Para.l.5 Barriers to transfers of
Environmentally Sound Technologies. *also
address: http://www.grida.no/cgi-bin/htsearch
MIDDLE EAST REGION :
Important
refuge wild relatives of important crop species
Glacial melt: climate change, improve river
watersheds,short term future.
Storm risks to some Mediterranean river deltas .
CO2 take up in indigenous plants and their
photosynthesis is with less water loss from
stomata pores in water-limited regions
(Bazzas 1996) There are only limited
studies of region.
Section 7.3.41 Solutions ? :
Shift in reliance from present to
selected animal and plant introductions.
Game, hunting, ranching, tourism *address
....ipcc/regional/166htm
.
Israel: Highly dependent on local agriculture for
food. Imports food
Possible: Wider use
of drip and underground irrigation could save 50%
of conventional water irrigation.
Possible: Expansion of winter grown crops.
The increase of fertilizers and pesticides
throughout Middle East increases land
degradation.
Diversification of economic activity
could be important precaution There will be increased
ill-effect on lower-income households with
climate change.
Run-off farming - a form of water
management, origin 3,000 years ago. has been
largely abandoned.
Re-generation may provide opportunity for
sustainable cropping and horticulture.
Fish: inland aqua-culture in earthen ponds ?
Mari-culture
in Mediterranean ? Israel imports 60% of
needed Fish Protein,
Climate change may produce salinity and
waterlogging
necessitate change in animal distribution, fences
etc. to increase plant cover, improve
status of root systems etc.
Developement of dams, and large
scale water storage ?
Expensive social and cultural dislocations and
dubious response to this. 6%-89% of region's
cropland is already irrigated. See Table D5.
DESERTIFICATION:
Could affect mean temperatures.
Could affect albedo (proportion of light
radiation reflected by
surface areas and plants) Short-term surface
soil-moisture rise.
No specific data on deterioration of soil
conditions.
NEEDS TO BE
URGENTLY ADDRESSED Some Middle East Countries
have launched action (UNEP.1997) Also Technical
Program info. available same source(
""""
""" )

Settlements and urbanization: Para 7.3.6. Re.
rapid urbanization creates problems: re. poverty;
access to clean water; sanitation; water and air
pollution; political unrest; population
migration. No specific Studies.

Adaptation
necessary before climate change becomes
perceptible Use of halophytes (plants adapted to
salination) (jos.braddell note: Recent Gene
Modification of tomato plants to saline soils)
INDUSTRY:
Rarely sensitive to climate change.
Increase of vehicle use leads to SMOG in
regions of high temperature.
Death rates rise due to smog.
Heat waves above indigenous thresholds can cause
death.
Increase of waterborn disease (Lowenthal 1993)
Dams and irrigation projects have different
disease potentials:
Schistosomiasis,Dengue
fever, Malaria
FINANCIAL
*address ....ipcc/regional/170htm World Bank
assesments conclude change of agric. crop species
will lead to reduction in water use by plants.
Their evaluation of this is that such reductions
are more important than any climate changes for
the next few decades. To reduce the water seepage
and waste of currently used irrigation channels
change to drip and below-ground irrigation
systems. Possible then to change to more valuable
fruit and vegetable crops.
There is a paper
by Nissenbaum 1994 providing info. reconstruction
of Dead Sea environment 4,000 years ago.


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