THE HANDSTAND

FEBRUARY2007

UPDATED Feb14th

Why is the US press silent on Brzezinski’s warnings of war against Iran?
By Barry Grey in Washington DC
Feb 3, 2007, 04:52

The major national newspapers and most broadcast outlets failed even to report Thursday’s stunning testimony by former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Brzezinski, national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, is among the most prominent figures within the US foreign policy establishment. He delivered a scathing critique of the war in Iraq and warned that the policy of the Bush administration was leading inevitably to a military confrontation with Iran which would have disastrous consequences for US imperialism.

Most significant and disturbing was Brzezinski’s suggestion that the Bush administration might manufacture a pretext to justify a military attack on Iran. Presenting what he called a “plausible scenario for a military collision with Iraq,” Brzezinski laid out the following series of events: “Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks, followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure, then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the US blamed on Iran, culminating in, quote/unquote, ‘defensive’ US military action against Iran...” [Emphasis added].

Thus Brzezinski opined that a US military attack on Iran would be an aggressive action, presented as though it were a defensive response to alleged Iranian provocations, and came close to suggesting, without explicitly stating as much, that the White House was capable of manufacturing or allowing a terrorist attack within the US to provide a casus belli for war.

It is self-evident that such testimony at an open congressional hearing from someone with decades of experience in the US foreign policy establishment and the closest ties to the military and intelligence apparatus is not only newsworthy, but of the most immense and grave import. Any objective and conscientious newspaper or news channel would consider it an obligation to inform the public of such a development.

Yet neither the New York Times nor the Washington Post carried so much as a news brief on Brzezinski’s testimony in their Friday editions. Nor did USA Today or the Wall Street Journal. All of these publications, of course, have well-staffed Washington bureaus and regularly cover congressional hearings—especially those dealing with such burning political questions as the war in Iraq.

There is no innocent explanation for their decision to suppress this story. The Washington Post on Thursday published a large page-two column and photo on Henry Kissinger’s appearance the previous day before the same Senate committee. The former secretary of state under Richard Nixon gave testimony that was generally supportive of the Bush administration’s war policy.

Moreover, the Post’s web edition carried an Associated Press report on Brzezinski’s appearance. That article introduced subtle but significant changes to Brzezinski’s speculative scenario of the road to war with Iran which had the effect of underplaying the sharpness and urgency of Brzezinski’s critique of the Bush administration. It omitted the suggestion that a terrorist attack within the US could become the justification for war, and it removed the quotation marks from Brzezinski’s talk of a “defensive” war against Iran.

The World Socialist Web Site on Friday telephoned the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and USA Today to ask for an explanation for their failure to report Brzezinski’s testimony. None of the newspapers returned our calls.

As for the television news outlets, the “News Hour with Jim Lehrer” on PBS showed a clip of Brzezinski laying out his war scenario before the Senate committee, without making any comment. “NBC Nightly News” ignored the story entirely.

The suppression of this damning critique of the Iraq war, the conspiratorial methods of the Bush administration, and its drive to an even wider war in the Middle East is one more demonstration of the corrupt and reactionary character of the American mass media. It indicates that the establishment media is preparing once again, as in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, to serve as a sounding board for the administration’s war propaganda and lies.

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/feb2007/brze-f03.shtml




A Nuclear War ? - The Irrational Tsunamai of Devastation
Iran, Israel,The Big Lie, and The Real Threat

by Frank Scott


The atrocity in Iraq continues, with greater opposition within the American ruling party, but no end in sight. It was made possible by reducing public consciousness to that of children in a day care center. But the latest assault on understanding material reality threatens even greater and more bloody injustice . If the continuing barrage of frenzied propaganda succeeds in casting Iran as global menace, and Ahmadinejad as global monster, there is no possible outcome but dreadful
global failure .

Why this wild focus on Iran and its president? While many insist that only control of oil is at stake , the zealous core of opposition to the Islamic and Arab world remains the state of Israel, and its rabid supporters in the USA. It is hardly an either/or question, but even as oil's importance is acknowledged, the enormous power of the Israeli lobby can continue to be denied only by those dense enough to deny global climate change.

Until recently, the existence and power of the lobby has gone unquestioned. This, in justified fear of its financial and political wrath , but also in guilty silence lest past tragedies befall the Jewish people again. How? The horrible experience of world war two has often distorted any sense of modern reality. In deference to memory of a terrible time for european Jews, we have allowed a longer lasting terrible time for those who had nothing to do with any part of that war .

Israel's pristine status in American consciousness has meant near obliteration of the Palestinian people, and most of the Arab and Islamic world as well . A great mass of humanity has been reduced to invisibility except as terrorists or religious fanatics , as they are depicted by jewish organizations working to protect a colonial European state, and by the American political and media establishment .

The major rationale for Israel's existence is the holocaust, the rabid persecution of European jews by the nazis in world war two. Perpetuation of the memory of this dreadful history has become the most powerful religious movement in the modern world, accorded the status of theocratic faith, not to be questioned by any, and to be ritually worshipped by all.

This has led to intellectual pogroms in Europe where those who dare to question any parts of the holocaust story are charged with heresy and imprisoned. Revenge is not only visited on the Palestinian people, who had nothing to do with any part of it, but on europeans who audaciously
use supposed democratic liberties in order to freely question history.

Treating a material event as a sanctified subject open to no investigation but that of true believers is a form of religious fanaticism. Where biblical mythology about virgin birth, the parting of the red sea, or immaterial spirits communicating with material beings are all subject to intellectual challenge, this historic event is placed above and beyond the human pale and any questioning of its substance
treated as political blasphemy.

If this irrationalism were confined to a handful of individuals currently in prison, it would be serious enough. But when it becomes the root cause of moving toward potential nuclear war , it must be
confronted before it leads to even more destruction than has already been created in its tsunami like waves of devastation .

Iraq and Saddam Hussein were deemed threats to Israel, and its supporters in the USA played a major role in bringing about the destruction of that nation and its leader. This was to protect a state
still seen as a haven for a threatened people, even if the threats are almost entirely neuro-psychiatric and only become material as result of its pariah presence in the middle east. But present claims that Iran poses an even deadlier threat to Israel, and which induce a chorus of support from the American government, means this irrationalism in the service of collective neurosis needs to be confronted before it destroys not only collective sanity, but collective civilization as well.

Attempting to portray Iran as a nuclear menace to Israel and the world, in that order, even though it has no nuclear weapons and Israel has hundreds, is not merely a sign of dementia . It is indication of near idiocy in a society that can be repeatedly manipulated into believing such totally crackpot notions that have no foundation in the material world but exist only in a world of superstitious psycho-fantasy.

While many groups have been terrifying their members by depicting Ahmadinejad as bent on exterminating Jews, the Israeli lobby has been doing the same job on our government . This has led to congressional leaders and future presidential candidates lining up in support of this
totally preposterous fiction. The purveyors of this notion are completely delusional, but rather than being sedated or institutionalized, they preside over and control some of our most powerful institutions. They wield frightening influence over an American public and could lead it to act in ignorant support of such hallucinatory fears .

Part of this dementia involves a very dangerous ethnocentric idea; that jewish suffering was, is, and will always be a central aspect of human history, and must not only be acknowledged as such, endlessly, but also atoned for as such, endlessly. No criticism of this central point, especially as it involves the holocaust, can be treated with anything but contemptuous disregard for the rights of any who fail to toe this ethnocentric line. After Ahmadinejad dared to have Tehran host a
conference on the holocaust, with revisionists who might be imprisoned in Europe allowed to speak their minds openly in Iran, he and his nation became a greater menace to that ethnocentric folly than Iraq and Saddam ever were.

When a supposedly enlightened civilization is threatening, once again, to attack another nation , in great part because of its alleged threat to the Jewish state and Jews, there can be no further denial on the part of the majority who will pay a terrible price. It is time to confine theological, biblical and metaphysical belief systems about the past to the imagination and the church, remove them from political economics , and face material reality before it is too late. Until rational, factual, scientifically provable conditions are confronted and dealt with, irrational and near stark raving insane fears could bring about even greater suffering for humanity than past ignorance has already caused. That rational analysis of our world leads to an unmistakable conclusion:

A euro-jewish and anti-democratic state in the middle east, and its extremist supporters in the USA, are a major threat to the global future. Israel, not Iran is the problem. Face it, and deal with it.

Copyright (c) 2007 by Frank Scott. All rights reserved.Frank Scott writes political commentary which appears in the Coastal
Post, a monthly publication from Marin County, California, and on
numerous web sites .

frank scott
email: frank@marin.cc.ca.us



January 26, 2007
Homage to Herzliya
The Lobby wants war with Iran
by Justin Raimondo

Asked about a Senate resolution disapproving the "surge" of US troops going into Iraq, Vice President Dick Cheney growled: "It won't stop us."

The Senate, the House, the Constitution, the American people voting in an election – nothing and no one in this country can stop the War Party. Are you one of the more than two-thirds of Americans who oppose this war, and totally disapprove of the "surge"? Don't bother seeking redress from your elected representatives in Congress – they long ago abdicated their authority over the military and diplomatic branches of the national security bureaucracy.

In 1952, as the Korean war was raging, the Supreme Court stopped Harry Truman when he invoked "national security" in a bid to nationalize the nation's steel mills. Congress was more accommodating. When the dwarfish little haberdasher sent troops to Korea without bothering to consult them, our Solons rolled over and purred, in anticipation of a pat on the stomach. Ever since then, the conduct of American foreign policy has been as far removed from popular control as the decrees of an absolute monarch. Every Congress has ceded more authority to the president – except for a brief, post-Vietnam interregnum – until the people's representatives play only an advisory role when it comes to questions of war and peace.

Who, then, controls the foreign policy of this nation?

Well, there is the president, who has more power than any Roman Emperor ever dreamed of: Caligula only imagined himself to be Jupiter, while George W. Bush has more than a few thunderbolts in his quiver, and, thanks to our supine Congress, can hurl them at will.

There are the president's courtiers, his advisors, his friends and confidantes. As in any royal court, the idea is to get in a position to whisper in the ear of the king, and there are multitudes of lobbyists vying for this spot. In the foreign policy realm, a great many foreign interests compete for American attention and largess. Of all these, the most successful by far has been the Israel lobby, or, as John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt have dubbed it, simply the Lobby – in part, no doubt, because no other foreign interest or pressure group even begins to approach it in terms of Washington clout.

The Lobby used to be a forbidden topic, or, at least, one discussed in low whispers, using code words and knowing winks. We weren't supposed to say, at least out loud, that Israel, like every other country of consequence, maintains an active lobby in Washington, one which also happens to be the most organized, well-financed, and powerful pressure group when it comes to foreign policy. This kind of clout is measured, in part, by the single largest foreign aid appropriation, allotted to Israel, $3.5 billion yearly. It is also measured in the campaign contributions coming from what Wesley Clark refers to as "the New York money people."

Clark caused an uproar when he told Arianna Huffington why he was so worried about the prospect of war with Iran:

"When we asked him what made him so sure the Bush administration was headed in this direction, he replied: ‘You just have to read what's in the Israeli press. The Jewish community is divided but there is so much pressure being channeled from the New York money people to the office seekers.'"

We have seen no more blogging by Gen. Clark at the Huffington Post, and that's, no doubt, for the same reason I've been banished from the blog where Holllywood vapidity and DNC timidity meet and greet. "At one point," The Huff continues,

"Melinda reminded him that she was taking down everything he said (a fact that would have been hard to miss, since she was taking notes on a not-inconspicuous legal pad). His response: 'Yes, I know." For Clark, this is the biggest foreign policy issue facing the US ‘I'm worried about the surge,' he said. ‘But I'm worried about this even more.'"

Yes, comrade, we're taking all this down: see you at GPU headquarters. Next stop, the gulag.

Tellingly, the usually voluble Arianna, who has an opinion on virtually every subject, had nothing to say about Israel's invasion of Lebanon.

Attacked by all the usual suspects, Clark was ably defended by Matt Yglesias. Yglesias, a writer for the American Prospect whose blog is the go-to place for a sober, left-of-center (and pretty consistently noninterventionist) viewpoint, says that everything Clark said is true, and, what's more, everybody knows it's true:

"Most major American Jewish organizations cater to the views of extremely wealthy major donors whose political views are well to the right of the bulk of American Jews, one of the most liberal ethnic groups in the country. Furthermore, it's true that major Jewish organizations are trying to push the country into war. And, last, it's true that if you read the Israeli press you'll see that right-wing Israeli politicians are anticipating a military confrontation with Iran."

For evidence of the war hysteria now sweeping official Israeli circles, readers of the Israeli (and overseas) press will note the attention paid to the seventh annual Herzliya conference, an event attended by top Israeli – and American – leaders, including a surprising number of would-be occupants of the Oval Office. "There is no doubt that the war drums are beating pretty loudly here in Herzliya," reports Gideon Rachman, the Financial Times foreign correspondent, who was struck by "the number of top Americans who have bothered to come over for the conference." With US officials Gordon England and Nick Burns as the centerpieces, several serious presidential wannabes decorated the podium: Mitt Romney made a personal appearance, with John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and John Edwards addressing the conference by satellite. "I cannot think of any other country in the world that could summon up this level of American participation for a conference like this," writes Rachman. "Certainly not Britain."

Richard Perle, Jim Woolsey, and nutty Newt Gingrich rounded out the speakers list, adding their own notes of individualized hysteria to the chorus of warmongering. "A lot of these chaps," avers Rachman, "were very prominent in the drive to go to war in Iraq. Now, flushed by their undoubted success there, they are turning their attention to Iran."

That anyone, at this date, is advocating another war in the Middle East – this time against a country three times the size of Iraq, with a far larger population, and the will to fight – is astonishing. Yet each of these American politicians – major candidates for the highest office in the land – pledged at Herzliya that we would go to war, if necessary, in order to stop the alleged Iranian drive to acquire nukes. Former (and aspiring) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threw out the CIA's assessment of 10 years before Tehran goes nuclear, and substituted his own: 1,000 days. The supposed imminence of an Iranian mushroom cloud looming over the Israeli skyline imparted a certain apocalyptic air to the proceedings, and the American candidates put on quite a show:

"US presidential hopefuls Mitt Romney, John Edwards and John McCain, along with Newt Gingrich, were in Israel, seemingly competing to see who can be most strident in defense of the Jewish state during personal or video appearances at the conference here, just north of Tel Aviv.

"The four politicians called for ways to prevent Iran's government from acquiring nuclear weapons. While stressing the strong US-Israel ties, the presidential hopefuls all agreed that the US has to ratchet up sanctions on Iran and leave the possibility of a military attack ‘on the table'."

Romney may have won the hyperbole contest, but the big surprise was Edwards, who came in second with his declaration that preventing Iran from getting nukes is "is the greatest challenge of our generation." On the same day he ran an ad in Roll Call calling on Congress to oppose the "surge" in Iraq, he was telling the Herzliya conference that "All options are on the table to ensure that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon."

"At a time when most Democrats in the United States are calling for less military involvement abroad," notes the Jersusalem Post, "Edwards, of South Carolina, told the Seventh Annual Herzliya Conference on Monday that his country must do everything that it can to stop Iran from possessing nuclear weapons." His position is that we need to negotiate – while tightening sanctions and never ceasing to threaten them. This marked Edwards as the "moderate" at the conference.

In spite of all the posturing tough talk, the Israelis don't have the military capacity to take out all of Iran's suspected nuclear sites in one fell swoop, or even half a dozen swoops: only the United States has the ability to do that. Unable to do it on their own, the Israelis must, somehow, cajole us into doing it for them.

The question is: how is it in American interests to go to war with Iran over this issue? The Iranian mullahs are not about to launch a nuclear first strike at Israel, for all of Bernard Lewis's visions of a Shi'ite apocalypse. Yes, there is a millennialist mythology in Shi'ite Islam, a mirror image of the end-of-the-world-ism of born-again Christian Rapturists in the West. Both groups support powerful political parties in their respective countries, yet one can hardly conclude, from this, that either the US or Iran is about to attack the other with nuclear weapons.

In any case, there is no threat to America, per se, unless one counts radical "settlers" from Brooklyn squatting on Palestinian land. The "existential threat" – if it can be called that, as it was at the conference – is to Israel, not the US. Yet the Israelis' hysterical response is way out of proportion to the alleged danger, even given the worst case scenario.

If and when the Iranians produce nuclear weapons, the result will be very similar to what occurred during the cold war, with both sides constrained by the prospect of mutual assured destruction. Professor Lewis to the contrary, the Iranians are not about to indulge in an act of collective suicide by raining nuclear death on Israeli cities. Retaliation would be swift, and merciless.

The Israelis already have nukes, and I don't see them rushing to abide by – or even sign – the Nonproliferation Treaty. The significance of a nuclearized Iran isn't the prospect of an Iranian first strike at Israel – highly unlikely is putting it mildly – but Israel's loss of its regional nuclear monopoly. Iran is making its bid to reassert its historical role as the regional hegemon, or at least positioning to contend for the title with Israel and the US

The campaign to provoke war with Iran is aimed at maintaining Israeli nuclear supremacy in the Middle East. Americans are supposed to support this because an Israeli first strike at Tehran, or elsewhere in the Arab world, is unthinkable – right? On the other hand, one can easily imagine Deputy Prime Minister Avigdor Lieberman ordering the nuking of Tehran, Mecca, and Cairo.

The Lobby has a hard task, and one has to admire them for what they achieved: after all, it is so clearly not in America's interest to be seen as Israel's cat's-paw in the region, yet they have managed to make it so anyway. As Mearsheimer and Walt put it:

"Other special-interest groups have managed to skew foreign policy, but no lobby has managed to divert it as far from what the national interest would suggest, while simultaneously convincing Americans that US interests and those of the other country – in this case, Israel – are essentially identical."

When John Edwards, who poses as a peace candidate, declares that we will go to war with Iran before we'll let them break Israel's nuclear monopoly in the Middle East, that should tell us something about how the power of the Lobby has distorted our foreign policy and deformed the American political process. In paying homage to Herzliya, Edwards and his fellow candidates are betraying and subverting American interests.

So why do they do it? Clark's analysis of the pressure, including financial pressure, is quite accurate: it takes an enormous amount of money to run for president, and there are other pressures as well. Anyone who takes a stand against the Lobby is relentlessly smeared, as were professors Mearsheimer and Walt, and as Gen. Clark is being smeared now.

With a born-again Christian faction in the GOP theologically committed to putting Israeli interests over and above American interests, and big contributors to the Democratic party making unconditional support for Israel a litmus test for candidates, the two-party system keeps the Lobby in the saddle, and politically formidable – in spite of recent troubles having to do with possible violations of the Espionage Act.

Just as we attacked Iraq "motivated in good part by a desire to make Israel more secure," as Mearsheimer and Walt put it, so we'll fight the next war – against Iran – for the same reason. The power of the Lobby is being mobilized, and not quietly. While there is some opposition, notably coming from Harry Reid and others who say that the war authorization for Iraq didn't and doesn't include Iran, Congress has yet to take any concrete action. In any event, as Dick Cheney put it, "It won't stop us."

We seem set on a course for catastrophe, and if there is any way to avoid it – given our rigged political system – the first step must be a public outcry. That's why I've been pushing a measure introduced by Congressman Walter B. Jones, Republican of North Carolina, House Joint Resolution 14, which forbids an attack on Iran by US forces unless our troops or interests are directly attacked first.

Not surprisingly, the Democratic party is a major obstacle to the passage of the Jones resolution. I had a call in to Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office last week asking about her position on H.J. Res. 14 – and still no answer. Maybe you can get an answer out of her, one way or the other. Call (202) 225-4965and tell her Justin Raimondo sent you ….


Whose Oil is it Anyway?Survival Strategies for Iran

by Dr. Moti Nissani

www.dissidentvoice.org
February 1, 2007

Iran, in 2007, faces an enormous peril to its independence, land, and people. The future of the country is in the balance, depending in part on the ability of its current strongmen to checkmate their adversaries.

Iraq tells us what is at stake here (see for example, Barry M. Lando, 2007, Web of Deceit). By now, entire cities have been reduced to rubble, garrisons, misery, and chaos. Vast tracts of land are contaminated, and meaningful jobs are as scarce as hen's teeth. The neo-colonialists have shrewdly resorted to a divide-and-conquer policy. As in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and scores of other places, they have fomented a bloody civil war, complete with extreme sectarian violence and government-sponsored death squads. Iraqi Arabs are daily humiliated, tortured, and incarcerated by the neo-colonialists and their quislings, to the point that some ordinary men and women prefer a Samson-style death to the living hell that is now Iraq. Iraqi scientists and intellectuals have been systematically murdered and silenced by the occupying forces and their allies. Fear is in the air, everywhere. 

The numbers themselves defy belief. The USA was instrumental in bringing Saddam Hussein to power, and is thus indirectly and partially responsible for his crimes and misadventures.  Iraq's war with Iran was partially engineered by the USA and its weapons' manufacturers, sustaining a cataclysm that may have caused, to both sides combined, some 1,000,000 deaths and 2,000,000 injuries. The subsequent USA-imposed economic strangulation (1990-2003) has been probably responsible for the death of an additional 1,000,000 Iraqis, and, since 2003, the invasion and occupation of Iraq caused the loss of some 600,000 lives. The number of maimed and injured since 2003 is, most likely, even higher than 600,000. The number of refugees probably exceeds 1,000,000. Thus, over the past 26 years or so, as a result of Anglo-American interventions and their shock and awe tactics, perhaps 7% of the Iraqi people have been directly or indirectly murdered, another 7% might have been physically injured, and yet another 7% forced into exile. Moreover, most surviving Iraqis have suffered psychological traumas and shell shocks that might haunt them for the rest of their lives. To add insult to injury, many of the victims have been children and other innocent bystanders. One can legitimately argue about these order-of-magnitude estimates and the extent to which these upheavals slowed down population growth in Iraq, in part because one must infer these very estimates from what the killers themselves choose to divulge. Notwithstanding such uncertainties, the deliberate, virtually unilateral, carnage is on a sufficiently large scale to be considered a genocide.

At the same time, Iraq's oil wealth has been appropriated by the neo-colonialists. For the real rulers of the USA -- the power players in the shadows, the big bankers, oil men, arms merchants, the Israeli lobby, the people who predetermine who wins and loses any given Federal, state, and local election -- Iraq, like any other imperialistic project, has been a bonanza.  These tycoons have made billions, and they are intent on making more. That they do not anticipate ever leaving Iraq is evident from the installation of vast permanent military bases in that occupied land, at a staggering cost to the long-suffering, mostly decent but hoodwinked, American people.  Wanted or not, these lovers of skulls and bones (always from a safe distance, of course) plan to keep these bases at least for as long as the palm trees shall grow and the oil flow.  They are interested, as Henry Kissinger cynically explained, in undercover actions, not in social work.    

In my view, the gravest error Iran could commit is underestimating the tenacity, determination, colossal greed, and Machiavellian brilliance of its American adversaries. Iran's black gold is simply too tempting for men who have been conditioned, all their lives, to dispense with any common decency whatsoever and to worship wealth and power. These men plan to re-colonize and depopulate Iran, and they are merely looking for the right moment. If that moment does not come on its own, they will skillfully create it. Neither Iran, nor any other country, could contain them through conventional wars. 

When the USA finally makes its move, it would send 100,000 profitable (profitable to the arms and oil merchants, that is) sorties of destruction, week after bloody week, thus sending Iran "back to the stone age," and only then will America move its gun ships, tanks, and armored vehicles towards Tehran. If "conventional" destruction fails, the USA might use profitable "tactical" nuclear weapons, without blinking an eye.  Either way, there will be precious few power and industrial plants left standing in Iran, few hospitals, few factories, few military installations, few water treatment plants, and fewer civilians. For America's rulers, anything goes -- as long as they manage to keep the oil wells out of harm's way

To avoid this hell, Iranian policy should seek to outfox America's rulers at their own game, not, as Iran's decision-makers do now, by responding with justifiable but suicidal anger to American provocations. Somerset Maugham says someplace that the politicians he has known, seen, or heard about did not impress him with their brilliance. To survive, Iran's rulers must prove him wrong. How?

Above all, Iran must buy time. First, Iran's decision-makers should swallow their pride and let go for the moment of one and all nuclear projects. They must bide their time, preserve their nation's independence, minimize their losses, protect their people from genocide, and strengthen the infrastructure of their own country.  Second, Iranians should not play into their enemies' hands by militarily escalating the conflict.  Their enemies are not paper tigers.  They will not blink, for these enemies have vast oil fields to gain and nothing to lose -- they are playing with their countrymen's money and lives, not their own.  Third, in their speeches and actions, Iran's politicians might wish to portray themselves as lovers of peace, as leaders who are committed to social justice and freedom for people of all races, religions, and ethnic backgrounds, thus depriving their enemies of much needed propaganda weapons.  Fourth, Iran should use some of its wealth and the wealth of its friends to fund, behind the scenes, a lobby that would follow the examples of others in lavishly and skillfully swaying American policy and opinion makers. The USA, Iran must see, is a land of sunshine bribery (a.k.a. "campaign financing"), a land whose policies and media can be discreetly controlled by outsiders and by a cabal of homegrown billionaires. It's a country that prostrates itself, always, to the highest bidder, a  land where he who pays the congressman calls the wars. 

Even if all these steps are taken, they might delay conquest but not avert it, for as everyone deep down knows, the dispute is about oil and world ownership, not about "terrorism," nuclear weapons, or "democracy" (see F. W. Engdahl.  2004.  A Century of War).  History is clear on this point. The Anglo-Americans wanted the Indigenous people's land, and heartlessly and systematically exterminated well over 10,000,000 men, women, and children to achieve that goal (David E. Stannard, 1992,  American Holocaust). They wanted Massachusetts, Texas, California, the Philippines, Burma, Japan, Iraq, and got them -- by any means necessary.  As America's resistance to meaningful global warming legislation shows, they are willing to risk humanity's very future to sustain their oil and power addictions.         

Iran can gain time, but it cannot win a conventional or nuclear war against an implacable opponent which can count on a misinformed citizenry, a strong economy, and the most breathtaking killing machines the world has ever seen.  Against such an opponent, courage, pride, or religious fervor avail nothing. 

In the final analysis, Iran's only chance of saving itself involves conceptual flexibility, adopting its strategies to the demands of the situation, and not letting its enemies dictate the terms of engagement.  To begin with, Iran must let the world know that it plans to use its air and sea power fully the moment the country is attacked, during the first hours of open conflict, before these weapons are destroyed.    

Likewise, Iran must urgently acquire an additional deterrent which would forego large-scale, heads-on, subsequent engagements and which would appeal to the self-interest of Iran's would-be usurpers, not to their humanity. Instead of focusing on conventional defense, Iranians should dedicate every spare rial to a post-conquest strategy aimed at driving the neo-colonialists out should they ever try to physically take over the country. Instead of acquiring more battleships and fighting jets, Iran should purchase and widely distribute millions of submachine guns, night vision devices, hand-held antiaircraft, small armor-piercing weapons, and hand grenades. Plans should be taken now to establish a base for a government in exile, to totally annihilate, in the event of an invasion, airports, oil fields, pipelines, factories, roads -- anything that could aid or finance the long-term occupation of the country. The Russian scorched-earth model in the face of superior forces, the Swiss defense model, the Maoist model, the American model of conducting the revolutionary wars, should all be taken in consideration in devising a plan for evicting the occupiers.  Only such concrete, highly conspicuous, preparations might convince Iran's would-be attackers that the personal costs  to them (not to their country) of such an attack will exceed the benefits.  These are, in my view, the only deterrents that might save Iran's current rulers from incarceration, torture, or hanging, the Iranian people from ruin, and the American people from culpability in yet another crime against humanity.

Dr. Moti Nissani teaches at Wayne State University, Michigan, USA, and is the author of Lives in the Balance: The Cold War and American Politics, 1945-1991. He can be reached at: Moti.Nissani@wayne.edu.